Tom Hall | Sportscene - Watching the world cup races two weeks ago in Milan and this weekend in Racice, reminded me of an anecdote a coach of mine would trot out when I would whine about training in bad conditions.

The story is set in Florida where Czech C1 star Martin Doktor was training for the 1996 Olympics in Atlanta. At The Pines Resort in Florida, where many of the world’s best gather every spring to train, you have two choices for paddling: a sheltered canal that is almost always calm, or a river that is often too wavy and windy for consistent training. The story goes that no matter the weather or waves Doktor was out on the river preparing for whatever conditions were thrown at him on race day.

The message my coach was trying to get across was clear: Doktor trained for the worst and hoped for the best and won two Olympic gold medals, so quit whining and paddle in the wind, rain and sometimes snow.

Preparing for the worst is what flat-water racing is all about, particularly at world cups in May when you’re guaranteed at least a few days of bad weather. The best athletes cope with whatever is thrown at them. That’s why they’re the best. And the variable conditions at world cups are an excellent test, which is why many countries use world cups as part of their selection. It takes athletes out of the vacuum of a trials at home, and throws them into the closest approximation we have to a world championship or Olympic race.

Anything can happen at a world cup, which is why, in my experience, the best measure of Olympic or world championship medal potential is a given athlete’s or team’s consistency over the month long world cup circuit. Usually, different conditions on different courses provide a good set of results with which to predict who will top the podium later in the season. But similar conditions from world cup to world cup, like we’ve seen so far this year, can also provide useful information.

One thing I look for during the world cup circuit is if someone won big one weekend then missed the podium on another. If the conditions were the same and the competition largely unchanged it may indicate a poor training base, which makes it hard to compete consistently. It may also simply mean a bad cold.  Another thing to look for is who isn’t racing?

To use an example close to my heart, we haven’t seen Hungary in the C1-1000M yet; so any medal in Milan or Racice needs to be taken with a grain of paprika. It’s a safe bet that Attila Vajda will be on or close to the podium. The same goes for the women’s races and most of the men’s kayak races. There are always podium potential athletes missing at world cups, which is why consistently being on top of the world cup podium is critical.

There is always someone that doesn’t race at world cups and shows up fast at the end of the season. And they often bump someone off the podium who performed well, but not exceptionally so, at world cups. What I mean is that if you finish third in all the world cups, you’re in the hunt for a medal at the world championships, but you’re also in a far more precarious position than the person who won all three world cups.

Sebastian Brendel and Max Hoff are perfect examples. They’re two for two so far. Even if they don’t race in Szeged, they’re still obvious favourites for the podium in Russia. In women’s kayak, Lisa Carrington dominated in Milan, but seemed challenged by the headwind in Racice. It’ll be interesting to watch her, and everyone else, perform in Szeged next week. [Note - Lisa Carrington will travel back home today] The Hungarian team will be racing, which always changes things, and the conditions in Szeged, though usually warm, are anyone’s guess this early in the season.

Regardless of the weather, with only a week before the next world cup, almost everyone will be heading straight to Szeged, which means wavy conditions with everyone training on the same water. That week on a busy course before a big race was always the time for me when that Doktor anecdote resonated the most. Prepare for the worst and hope the best.

Results Racice and Milan

• www.sportscene.tv/flatwater/canoe-sprint/result-archive